Can Trump Deliver on Cannabis? The High Stakes of 2025 Reform

As President-elect Donald Trump prepares to take office in 2025, a surprising sector awaits his leadership with bated breath: cannabis. Once considered an unlikely ally to the cannabis industry, Trump made waves during his campaign by endorsing three key reforms that could reshape the future of cannabis in the United States. But as with any high-stakes political promise, the question remains: Can he deliver?

These reforms have the potential to legitimize the industry, boost investor confidence, and address critical issues like public safety and financial accessibility. For cannabis investors, who have faced a brutal 14% decline in stock values this year, such changes could be a lifeline.

Despite the optimism, Trump faces significant hurdles in fulfilling these promises:

The Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) has historically opposed rescheduling cannabis, favoring a more conservative approach to drug policy. Trump’s plan to reschedule cannabis will likely face pushback from within his own administration, particularly from entrenched officials at the Department of Justice (DOJ).

While Trump’s campaign promises have won public support, his own party remains divided on cannabis reform. Republicans control Congress, and many conservative lawmakers have shown a willingness to defy Trump’s wishes, as evidenced by their recent rejection of his debt ceiling proposal.

Cannabis reform is just one item on Trump’s ambitious 2025 agenda, which includes addressing immigration and government spending. The cannabis industry will need to compete with other pressing issues for his attention and political capital.

Amid these challenges, there are promising signs that Trump could still push through meaningful reform:

Polls consistently show that a majority of Americans, including many in conservative states, support cannabis reform. Florida’s 56% approval of recreational use legalization demonstrates the shifting tides in even the most traditional regions.

Trump’s cabinet picks could play a pivotal role in advancing cannabis reform. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Trump’s nominee for Secretary of Health and Human Services, is a vocal advocate for cannabis legalization and banking reform. Conversely, Trump’s Attorney General nominee, Pam Bondi, has historically opposed cannabis but may align with the administration’s broader goals under Trump’s leadership.

Of the proposed reforms, rescheduling cannabis holds the greatest potential for immediate impact. Moving cannabis to Schedule III would eliminate an IRS rule that prevents cannabis businesses from deducting operating expenses. This could inject much-needed cash flow into the industry, boosting earnings and investor confidence.

The SAFER Banking Act has already gained traction in Congress, with Republican Representative French Hill supporting the measure. Trump’s backing could be the final push needed to pass the legislation, providing cannabis businesses with safe access to banking services and reducing reliance on cash-only operations.

For cannabis companies and investors, 2025 represents a turning point. Rescheduling could unlock billions in economic potential, while banking reform would provide the infrastructure needed for long-term growth. Yet, the political landscape remains precarious, with Trump walking a tightrope between fulfilling his promises and navigating opposition from within his own party and government.

The stakes for Trump’s cannabis reform agenda couldn’t be higher. If he delivers on his promises, the cannabis industry could see unprecedented growth and legitimacy. If he falters, it could mean more years of stagnation for a sector that has struggled to gain traction.

As 2025 unfolds, all eyes will be on Trump to see if he can overcome the challenges and deliver on his commitment to cannabis reform. For an industry on the brink of transformation, the clock is ticking.

Do You Think Trump Will Deliver on Cannabis Reform in 2025?