Two Stories of Crime: FBI Data vs. Victimization Survey—Which Tells the Real Story?

As political discourse heats up around crime in America, the conversation often circles back to the numbers. But which numbers? Two major sources—the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting Program (UCR) and the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS)—paint different pictures of the state of violent crime in the U.S. So, how can both be right?

Here's a deep dive into how these two metrics diverge, what they measure, and how they inform the ongoing debate around crime trends.

The FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting Program has long been a primary source of crime data, pulling numbers directly from law enforcement agencies across the country. According to the latest 2023 report, violent crime decreased by an estimated 3%, with homicides and non-negligent manslaughter seeing a dramatic 12% drop.

This trend aligns with a broader return to pre-pandemic crime levels after the COVID-19 surge. FBI statistics show that the violent crime rate fell from 377 to 364 violent crimes per 100,000 people between 2022 and 2023, just a tick above the 2019 rate.

But the FBI’s numbers tell only part of the story. Because the UCR relies exclusively on crimes reported to the police, it excludes a significant portion of crimes that never make it to law enforcement’s radar. This limitation can skew perceptions, as many incidents of violent crime go unreported for reasons like fear, mistrust in law enforcement, or personal reluctance.

In contrast, the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS), conducted by the Justice Department, offers a more nuanced perspective by capturing crimes that may never be reported to the authorities. The NCVS relies on interviews with over 240,000 individuals, aged 12 and older, asking them whether they were victims of crimes—reported or not.

According to the NCVS, the violent crime victimization rate increased from about 16 per 1,000 people in 2020 to 22.5 per 1,000 in 2023, suggesting a rise in crime that isn’t necessarily reflected in police reports. However, the NCVS also notes that the 2023 rate is not statistically different from 2019’s figures, underscoring the broader trend of crime decreasing since the 1990s.

While the victimization survey gives a more comprehensive snapshot of crime, it has its limitations. For one, it doesn’t include murders, as victims cannot be interviewed posthumously. Additionally, it only collects data from individuals aged 12 and up, excluding younger victims and crimes such as child abuse.

The key difference between these two data sets is their methodology. The FBI’s UCR shows reported crimes, while the NCVS tries to capture the actual scope of crime, whether reported or not. This discrepancy explains why the FBI reports a decline in violent crime, while the NCVS reveals an uptick in victimization rates.

This divergence creates an interpretive gap that can be leveraged by politicians. For example, former President Donald Trump has used the NCVS data to argue that crime is spiraling out of control under President Biden’s administration. In contrast, the Biden administration can point to FBI statistics showing a steady decline in crime since the pandemic surge.

Neither the FBI nor the NCVS offers a complete picture on its own. Together, they provide complementary insights into the state of crime in the U.S. The FBI’s data focuses on law enforcement trends and crimes that result in formal investigations, while the NCVS highlights how widespread victimization might be, regardless of police involvement.

For the average person, the truth likely lies somewhere in between. The FBI’s numbers suggest that law enforcement is managing to rein in reported crime rates, while the NCVS indicates that personal experiences with crime may not reflect this downward trend. The true state of crime in America depends on which narrative resonates more with you—what gets reported or what goes unseen.

As violent crime becomes a key talking point in the 2024 presidential campaign, both sources of data are likely to play pivotal roles in shaping public opinion. The FBI’s reports provide an optimistic outlook, while the NCVS paints a more complicated picture. Understanding the differences between these data sources is crucial for making sense of the political rhetoric surrounding crime and safety in America.

Whether you believe the glass is half full or half empty, it's clear that crime statistics are far from straightforward. In the debate between reported crime and actual victimization, both stories deserve attention.

Is crime in America worse than it seems, or are we safer than we think?